IndiaTrackerGrowth
How fast is the economy growing, and which sectors and spending components drive it? Quarterly national accounts from MoSPI. Real GDP grew 7.8% on a year earlier in Q1 FY27; nominal GDP in that quarter was ₹88.3 lakh crore.
Real GDP and GVA growth, as published
% change on the same quarter a year earlier, constant prices
Base 2022-23 from Q1 FY24 (April–June 2023), base 2011-12 before; each value is the rate MoSPI published on that base. The swings in FY21 and FY22 are the COVID-19 lockdown and rebound.
Base year. MoSPI moved the national accounts to a 2022-23 base in 2026 (from 2011-12). Levels on this page are on the new base and start in 2022-23; growth rates before Q1 FY24 are the old base's published rates, and the two are not linked. Old and new bases compared →
Annual estimates
| Financial year | Estimate | Real GDP | Nominal GDP | Real GVA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | Provisional Estimates | 7.8% | 8.6% | 7.9% |
| 2024-25 | First Revised Estimates | 7.2% | 9.4% | 7.1% |
| 2023-24 | Final Estimates | 7.3% | 11.1% | 7.4% |
% change on the previous financial year, base 2022-23. MoSPI revises each year's estimate several times (advance estimates before the year ends, then provisional, revised and final estimates over the following years); the column shows where each year stands now. Earlier estimates are kept in our revision log as MoSPI replaces them: see the series page. Sector detail: Growth detail →
Growth by sector
| Real GVA, % y/y | Q1 FY26 | Q2 FY26 | Q3 FY26 | Q4 FY26 | Q1 FY27 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total GVA | 7.0 | 8.3 | 7.6 | 8.7 | 8.2 |
| GVA agriculture | 4.4 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 3.9 | 3.6 |
| GVA mining and quarrying | 12.4 | 21.6 | 3.3 | −2.9 | −2.4 |
| GVA manufacturing | 8.3 | 10.0 | 9.0 | 7.9 | 9.2 |
| GVA electricity | −1.8 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 4.8 | 8.9 |
| GVA construction | 5.2 | 7.8 | 7.0 | 8.7 | 7.7 |
| GVA trade | 9.8 | 10.6 | 11.7 | 12.9 | 8.5 |
| GVA financial | 8.8 | 9.9 | 10.9 | 12.3 | 12.1 |
| GVA public administration | 4.6 | 5.7 | 6.6 | 8.0 | 7.5 |
Growth by spending component
| Constant prices, % y/y | Q1 FY26 | Q2 FY26 | Q3 FY26 | Q4 FY26 | Q1 FY27 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP | 6.9 | 8.1 | 7.7 | 8.6 | 7.8 |
| Private consumption | 6.8 | 6.4 | 8.0 | 7.5 | 7.1 |
| Government consumption | 4.5 | 4.4 | 7.0 | 7.7 | 4.3 |
| Fixed investment | 5.8 | 7.2 | 8.3 | 10.5 | 11.9 |
| Exports | 6.0 | 9.7 | 6.2 | 3.9 | 12.0 |
| Imports | 5.3 | 5.0 | 7.0 | 0.8 | −1.1 |
Computed from MoSPI's quarterly levels on the 2022-23 base (site calculations), so they can differ from published growth rates by rounding. GDP also includes change in stocks, valuables and discrepancies, which are not shown.
Contributions to real GDP growth
Percentage points of the year-on-year growth rate; dots show growth computed from the same quarterly levels
Contribution = change in the component over four quarters ÷ GDP four quarters earlier; imports subtract from GDP. "Other" is what the spending components do not explain: change in stocks, valuables and the statistical discrepancy. It was −3.6 percentage points in Q1 FY27, which is large: read growth by component with that in mind.
Nominal and real
Nominal and real GDP growth
% change on a year earlier, as published; the gap is GDP deflator inflation
RBI's projections and what happened
| Financial year | First projection | Latest projection | Outturn | Outturn minus first projection |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | 6.9% (Apr 2026) | 7.1% (Oct 2026) | not yet | – |
| 2025-26 | 6.7% (Feb 2025) | 7.3% (Dec 2025) | 7.8% (Provisional Estimates) | +1.1 pp |
| 2024-25 | 7.0% (Feb 2024) | 6.6% (Dec 2024) | 7.2% (First Revised Estimates) | +0.2 pp |
| 2023-24 | 6.4% (Feb 2023) | 7.0% (Dec 2023) | 7.3% (Final Estimates) | +0.9 pp |
How RBI's growth projection moved
% for each financial year, at each MPC meeting
Projections are whole-year real GDP growth as stated in each MPC resolution (February meetings project the coming year). Outturn: MoSPI’s latest annual estimate and its stage. RBI’s projections up to early 2026 were made on the old 2011-12 base and the outturns are on the new 2022-23 base, so part of any gap reflects the change of base.
Forecasts and sentiment
Professional forecasters: growth and inflation
Median forecast for the current financial year at each survey round, %; the year forecast changes each April
Consumer confidence
RBI surveys, index (100 = neutral; above 100 = optimism)
| Median forecast, %, survey of professional forecasters | Apr 2026 | Jun 2026 | Aug 2026 | Oct 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real GDP growth, this FY | 7.6 | 6.5 | 6.6 | 7.1 |
| Real GDP growth, next FY | 6.9 | 6.9 | 7.0 | 7.0 |
| CPI inflation, this FY | – | 4.9 | 5.0 | 5.1 |
| Core CPI inflation, this FY | – | 4.4 | 4.3 | 4.3 |
| Centre's fiscal deficit, % of GDP, this FY | 4.4 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 |
RBI's bi-monthly Survey of Professional Forecasters and Consumer Confidence Surveys, released with each MPC decision. They are respondents' views, not RBI's. Columns are the months the results were released; some older rounds are missing because their PDFs use a different layout.
Still to come on this page
A longer record of how annual estimates were revised (it builds up as MoSPI publishes new estimates). Checklist: docs/guidebook/05-pages/growth.md.