IndiaTrackerInflation
Is inflation close to RBI's 4% target, and is it broad-based? Consumer prices from MoSPI on the 2024 base, linked to 2013 through MoSPI's official back series. Core CPI follows RBI's definition (excluding food and fuel).
CPI inflation, as published
% change on a year earlier · RBI target 4% (dashed), tolerance band 2–6% (shaded)
Values for 2025 are the rates MoSPI published on the 2012 base; the 2024-base series begins in January 2025 and carries no inflation rates for that year.
What is driving inflation
Contributions to CPI inflation
Percentage points of the 12-month rate; dots show headline inflation as published
Headline, food, fuel and core
% change on a year earlier, computed from the indices
All twelve divisions of the CPI basket, with their contributions →
Food watch
Food prices by item, Sep 2026
CPI inflation, % on a year earlier, as published; dashed line = CPI food and beverages
| % y/y | Apr 2026 | May 2026 | Jun 2026 | Jul 2026 | Aug 2026 | Sep 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other vegetables | −4.3 | 2.9 | 6.2 | 13.3 | 23.3 | 45.2 |
| Sugar | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 5.0 | 22.2 | 28.0 |
| Spices | 4.7 | 6.8 | 8.9 | 12.2 | 13.0 | 13.4 |
| Fruits and nuts | 7.9 | 8.2 | 8.6 | 8.4 | 9.6 | 10.8 |
| Vegetable oils | 10.7 | 10.9 | 11.2 | 9.8 | 8.8 | 9.4 |
| Meat | 10.1 | 9.5 | 9.7 | 15.3 | 12.0 | 8.7 |
| Eggs | 5.3 | 5.5 | 6.5 | 12.5 | 11.1 | 8.7 |
| Fish and seafood | 8.6 | 7.5 | 7.7 | 7.9 | 8.2 | 7.9 |
| Cereals (grain) | −0.6 | 0.1 | 1.3 | 2.6 | 4.6 | 6.4 |
| Pulses | −1.7 | −0.1 | 1.4 | 2.7 | 3.6 | 4.7 |
| Milk | 2.9 | 2.9 | 3.6 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 4.2 |
| Cereals and products | −0.2 | 0.3 | 0.9 | 1.7 | 2.8 | 3.9 |
| Leafy vegetables | 17.1 | 11.4 | 7.1 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 0.5 |
| Fruit-bearing vegetables | 19.8 | 23.0 | 17.3 | −3.1 | −12.5 | −2.7 |
| Tubers | −23.7 | −23.7 | −20.3 | −16.6 | −13.2 | −11.5 |
Classes and sub-classes of the CPI food basket, inflation as MoSPI publishes it; on the 2024 base these rates start in January 2026. Vegetable prices swing widely from month to month. Rainfall and reservoir data, planned for this section, are not yet available in a form we can read (IMD publishes them as images).
RBI's projections and what happened
| Financial year | First projection | Latest projection | Outturn | Outturn minus first projection |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | 4.6% (Apr 2026) | 5.2% (Oct 2026) | not yet | – |
| 2025-26 | 4.0% (Apr 2025) | 2.1% (Feb 2026) | 2.1% (average of monthly rates) | −1.9 pp |
| 2024-25 | 4.5% (Apr 2024) | 4.8% (Feb 2025) | 4.6% (average of monthly rates) | +0.1 pp |
| 2023-24 | 5.3% (Feb 2023) | 5.4% (Feb 2024) | 5.4% (average of monthly rates) | +0.1 pp |
How RBI's inflation projection moved
% for each financial year, at each MPC meeting
Projections are whole-year CPI inflation as stated in each MPC resolution. Outturn: the average of the twelve monthly inflation rates as published, April to March (site calculation); RBI may compute its own annual figure differently.
Momentum or base effect?
Why the inflation rate changed this month
Change in 12-month CPI inflation (dots), split into this month's price change and last year's (log points, close to percentage points)
The 12-month inflation rate rises when prices go up this month (momentum) and when the same month last year saw small or falling price changes, which drop out of the comparison (base effect). In logs the split is exact: change in inflation = this month's price change − the price change in the same month a year earlier. Prices are not seasonally adjusted, so momentum can follow a seasonal pattern; the base effect from the same month carries that pattern too. Method: Methods.
Consumer prices, Sep 2026
| Index (2024=100) | Index | 1-month % change | 12-month %, latest | 12-month %, previous month | 12-month %, a year ago |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CPI | 109.49 | 0.69 | 5.54 | 4.82 | 1.41 |
| CPI food & beverages | 111.77 | 1.25 | 7.36 | 5.68 | – |
| CPI fuel Original | 105.70 | 0.11 | 5.29 | 5.21 | – |
| Core CPI Original | 108.64 | 0.41 | 4.33 | 4.15 | – |
| CPI electricity, gas & fuels | 104.09 | 0.19 | 3.23 | 3.11 | – |
| CPI petrol, diesel & CNG | 107.48 | 0.02 | 7.59 | 7.57 | – |
| CPI rural | 110.11 | 0.76 | 6.08 | 5.24 | 1.07 |
| CPI urban | 108.71 | 0.59 | 4.87 | 4.31 | 1.83 |
Changes computed from the published indices; MoSPI's own headline rate for Sep 2026 is 5.54%. Not seasonally adjusted. Components below the general index start in January 2025 on the 2024 base, so their 12-month changes start in January 2026.
How core CPI is built Original
RBI defines core inflation as CPI excluding food and fuel, where "fuel" is electricity, gas and other fuels plus petrol, diesel and CNG for vehicles. On the 2024 base, food and beverages weigh 36.75, core 53.04 and fuel 10.21 (of 100). MoSPI does not publish the split of fuel between its two parts in machine-readable form, so we recover it from MoSPI's own indices: each division index is an exact weighted average of its components, and 21 months of data pin the weights down (5.37 and 4.84). Core is then the general index with food and fuel taken out. Checked against RBI's published core index: within 0.01 index points in every month RBI reports (June and July of 2025 and 2026).
Rural and urban
CPI inflation, rural and urban
% change on a year earlier, computed from the indices
Wholesale prices
WPI and CPI inflation
% change on a year earlier, computed from the indices
WPI by major group
% change on a year earlier
| WPI (2022-23=100), % y/y | Apr 2026 | May 2026 | Jun 2026 | Jul 2026 | Aug 2026 | Sep 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All commodities | 8.4 | 9.9 | 10.0 | 9.8 | 9.9 | 11.4 |
| WPI primary articles | 4.0 | 5.3 | 7.0 | 8.6 | 7.8 | 8.7 |
| WPI food articles | 2.6 | 3.7 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.7 | 8.1 |
| WPI fuel & power | 25.0 | 30.8 | 27.2 | 19.8 | 22.9 | 25.9 |
| WPI manufactured | 6.7 | 7.7 | 7.8 | 8.3 | 8.4 | 9.8 |
Office of the Economic Adviser, DPIIT; base 2022-23 from April 2023. WPI inflation for Sep 2026 is 11.39%, which matches OEA's press release for that month (checked on 28 Oct 2026; see the series' verification record on the Data page). The latest two months are provisional.
Households' inflation expectations
What households expect, and what CPI shows
Per cent: median perception and expectations (RBI survey, bi-monthly) and CPI inflation as published
RBI's Inflation Expectations Survey of Households covers urban households in 19 cities; results are respondents' views, not RBI's. In every round we hold, perceived inflation was above measured CPI inflation, so the level matters less than the direction.
CPI for industrial workers
Labour Bureau's CPI-IW (2016=100): 5.57% in Sep 2026. History is built from each monthly press note (no archive is published), so the series is short. Series page
Still to come on this page
State-wise CPI is on the States page; a state map will follow. Checklist: docs/guidebook/05-pages/inflation.md.